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Technical Assistance in the Analysis of the Household Socio-Economic Survey

Request For Expressions of Interest

General Information
Country:   Mongolia
Notice/Contract Number:   GAP/C/B3 - 003
Publication Date:   Sep 6, 2008
Deadline:   Sep 22, 2008
Funding Agency:   World Bank
Buyer:   MN-Governance Assistance
Eligibility of Bidders:   In the evaluation of the bidders technical proposals, National Statistical Office (NSO) will pay particular attention to the following aspects:
 The previous experience of the Consultant in similar work in developing countries. This particular aspect of the professional background should be emphasized in the curricula. Experience working in Mongolia is especially desired.
 The Consultant must have experience in the Stata software package as this is the software package used by NSO.
 The Consultant must have extensive international experience of analyzing household surveys. An understanding of the issues involved in poverty measurement, poverty lines are also to be desired.
 The way the Consultant intends to implement technological transfer as a part of this project. In simple terms, NSO is not looking for technical assistance that merely performs and documents the tasks requested in a timely manner. The NSO would instead expect each task to be conducted in close collaboration with NSO’s staff, so that they will be later in a position to develop it with little or no additional help
Original Language:   English

Contact Information
Address:   Oyungerel Gonchig
Project Manager
Project Coordination Unit, Governance Assistance Project
Room # 304, Peace Building 8 / 5, Sukhbaatar Street
4th khoroo, Chingeltei district
Ulaanbaatar 210646
Mongolia
Telephone:   (976-51) 265-782
Fax:   (976-11) 7011-0582
Email:   Click here

Assignments

 

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MONGOLIA
GOVERNANCE ASSISTANCE PROJECT (GAP)
IDA Grant H222-MOG
International Consultant for technical assistance in the analysis
of the Household Socio-Economic Survey
Ref: GAP / C / B3 - 003

Request for Expressions of Interest (Terms of Reference included)
This request for expressions of interest follows the general procurement notice (GPN) that appeared in UN Development Business No. 677 of 30 April, 2006.

A. BACKGROUND
As a part of the World Bank Governance Assistance Project (GAP) project, the Mongolian National Statistics Office (NSO) is requesting technical assistance in the analysis of the Household Socio-Economic Survey 2007/08 (HSES2007/08). The firm or individual that will provide the technical assistance services (hereafter, “the Consultant”) will be selected as a result of an international tender under the World Bank’s rules and regulations.
The HSES2007/08 is a survey with multiple objectives. It is the nation-wide baseline for surveys to be done in succeeding years which provides the basis for a poverty monitoring system; it helps the country appraise its progress toward the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs); and supports poverty mapping and poverty reduction policies. The survey also permits updating the Consumer Price Index basket and informing the System of National Accounts. A more detailed description of the (HSES2007/08) methodology and the (HSES2007/08) questionnaires are reproduced as Appendices 1 and 2.
These Terms of Reference for technical assistance are divided into the following sections:
 The main design features of the HSES2007/08, with subsections on sampling, fieldwork organization, survey instruments, data management and central management.
 A description of some of the tasks expected from the Consultant with subsections on the specific tasks regarding analyzing and training for staff.
 A description of the main criteria that the NSO will use in the evaluation of technical proposals for this tender.
Main design features of the HSES2007/08
Sampling
Mongolia is divided into 21 aimags (provinces) and the capital city, Ulaanbaatar. The 21 aimags are sub-divided into 331 soums (districts), and the soums are further divided into bags. In addition, there are four regions – West, Highland, Central and East. Ulaanbaatar is located in the Central region, but is usually treated as a separate unit. The sample design for the HSES2007/08 is designed to allow analyses at the national, urban-rural and regional levels. The overall sample size is 11232 households and the sample is based on the population estimates of 2005.
Sample sizes and strata: A total sample of 11,232 households was allocated into three major strata as follows:
• Ulaanbaatar 3,600 households
• Aimag Centers 2,640 households
• Rural Area 4,992 households
The sample was implicitly allocated by districts and horoos in Ulaanbaatar, and by aimags in the Rural Area. Each aimag center was an explicit sub-stratum, with 240 households allocated to Darhan-Uul and Orhon, and 120 households to each of the other aimag centers. The Govisumber aimag was an explicitly excluded stratum.
Sampling stages: The selection strategy was different in each of the three major strata:
In Ulaanbaatar the sample was selected in two stages:
• First, 360 khesegs.
• Second, 10 households in each kheseg.
In the Aimag Capitals, in two stages:
• First, 12 or 24 bags in each aimag center.
• Second, 10 households in each bag.
In the Rural Areas, in three stages:
• First, 52 soums.
• Second, 12 bags in each soum.
• Third, 8 households in each bag.
Fieldwork, questionnaires and other instruments
The HSES2007/08 data collection methodology features: [1] the survey was fielded over a 12-month period, from 1 July 2007 to 31 June 2008; [2] food consumption was recorded with a one month diary in urban areas, and with 7 days and 1 month recall modules in rural areas; and non-food expenditures were recorded with 1-month and 12-months recall modules in both urban and rural areas; and [3] each interviewer visited household once every 10 days for food expenditure (in urban areas only) and once for the rest of the information (urban and rural).
Data management
The data from the HSES2007/08 questionnaires were entered in the aimag capitals and UlaanBaatar. The datasets from all households visited by the interviewers were transferred to NSO’s Ulaanbaatar headquarters on a fortnightly basis.
Central management
NSO has a Core Staff Team (CST) for the design, implementation and dissemination of the HSES2007/08. The CST is composed of a Project Manager, a Data Manager and a Field Manager. Their respective roles are:
 The Project Manager coordinates the design of the questionnaires; maintains communication with the Consultant, suppliers and data users; coordinates the administration and implementation of the survey with other divisions within NSO; manages the implementation of the survey itself; and ensures that data documentation and dissemination procedures are put in place.
 The Data Manager is the main individual responsible for the design and development of the data entry program and also provides input into the data entry aspects of questionnaire design. S/he writes the data entry manuals, trains the operators on the use of the program, prepares the databases for analysis, and helps prepare tabulations and graphs for the survey reports.
 The Field Manager supervises the sampling procedures, the cartographic updating and the household listing operation, and is responsible for preparing the pilot tests. S/he also designs the field operational procedures and the field manuals and is responsible for selecting and training the field staff. When the survey was fielded, s/he implemented the central supervision of the teams.

B. OBJECTIVE OF THE ASSIGNMENT
The Consultant is expected to provide NSO with technical assistance in all major aspects of the analysis of the HSES2007/08. The objective is to enable NSO to build its capacity to create and implement poverty analyses. To achieve this purpose, the Consultant will need to be able to provide technical assistance in the areas of: [1] data cleaning, [2] analyzing the data and writing the rpoet on those analyses, and [3] teaching the CST how do poverty analyses. The following describes the technical assistance tasks in detail.
C. SCOPE OF WORK
The international consultancy services should include following tasks;
1. Continue the data cleaning efforts that have been done by the CST on the HSES2007/08. This is expected to be a minor part of the consultancy as the CST has already been working on the data cleaning since the end of the data collection in June 2008.
2. Work with the NSO and the CST to develop a poverty line. This poverty line can be based on poverty lines already used in previous studies, or can be based on a new methodology. Because the HSES2007/08 has collected in-depth consumption and income information it is possible to develop a poverty line that is more complete than those used in the past. The NSO will make the final decision regarding what poverty line will be used, but the Consultant will recommend a methodology that will provide the most complete information.
3. Analyze the HSES2007/08 to create a poverty profile and welfare analysis of the Mongolian population.

The poverty analysis will cover the following main topics:
• How and to what extent has the social-economic environment and other objective factors impacted the living standards of the population as a whole as well as that of separate population groups?
• What is the influence of the personal characteristics of the individuals on the risk to be or to remain poor?

The analysis should include:
• How many are the poor and how severe is the problem for them?
• Who are the poor in the country?
• Why are the people poor?

4. Write a report on the results of the analyses.

Poverty Analyses Characteristics
Demographic and social poverty profile of the poor Age, sex, marital status, disability,
education, etc.
Differentiation in the group of the poor Into three groups of the poor:
extremely poor, poor and relatively poor
“Capitals” of the poor Owned land, housing, consumer durables, funds
Territorial distribution of the poor; differences by regions and causes for that Residence, sex, etc.
Sources of income (regular and irregular) of the poor By sources of income, employment sectors, employment status, etc.
Labor conditions, security and unemployment risks for the poor By residence, sex, employment sectors
Working poor and dependency relation Total and by employment sectors,
occupation, education, etc.
Dependency relation in the households of the poor How many persons rely on the income of
one working individual – by residence and main features of the household head
Occupation with agricultural activity and poverty
Total, by residence and main features of
the household head
Enforced unemployment and underemployment Total, by sex, age, education, profession, etc.
Consumption structure of the poor and relative share of the nourishment costs from the total costs Total, by residence and main features of
the household head
Access to loans, credits Total, by residence and main features of
the household head
Access to education and poverty Total, by residence and main features of
the household head
Access to health care services and poverty Total, by residence and main features of
the household head

5. Conduct training for the CST. This training will include, but is not limited to, training in Stata programming; how to construct consumption/income aggregates; how to construct standard indicators such as net enrollment rate, gross enrollment rate, employment rate, etc.; how to interpret the results of the analyses, etc. The Consultant should be prepared to provide training for 1/2 day periods three times a week. The NSO is committed to allowing the staff to attend the training sessions, but may reschedule sessions when necessary.

CONSULTANT’S QUALIFICATIONS / SELECTION CRITERIA
In the evaluation of the bidders technical proposals, NSO will pay particular attention to the following aspects:
 The previous experience of the Consultant in similar work in developing countries. This particular aspect of the professional background should be emphasized in the curricula. Experience working in Mongolia is especially desired.
 The Consultant must have experience in the Stata software package as this is the software package used by NSO.
 The Consultant must have extensive international experience of analyzing household surveys. An understanding of the issues involved in poverty measurement, poverty lines are also to be desired.
 The way the Consultant intends to implement technological transfer as a part of this project. In simple terms, NSO is not looking for technical assistance that merely performs and documents the tasks requested in a timely manner. The NSO would instead expect each task to be conducted in close collaboration with NSO’s staff, so that they will be later in a position to develop it with little or no additional help.

D. SUPERVISION, REPORTING AND DELIVERABLES
The consultant will work under the Chief of the National Statistical Office and will report directly to him.
The Consultant’s expected to bring his/her own computer equipments and the client will provide office space with office furniture (office desk and chair). A notebook will not be provided by the organization, the international consultant will use his/ her own notebook.

E. CONTRACT DURATION
It is estimated that a level of efforts would be 2.5 man/months starting from October 13, 2008. The consultant is expected to travel to Mongolia once during the duration of the contract.
The NSO reserves the right to extend, reduce or terminate the contract and/or suspend payments if the consultant does not comply with the obligations of the contract. The contract of the Consultant will be conditional on his/her work and relationships to with the NSO.

F. DEADLINE FOR SUBMISSION OF EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST AND CONTACT
INFORMATION

The GAP Project Coordinating Unit now invites eligible individual consultants to express their interest in providing these services. Interested consultants must provide information indicating that they are qualified to perform the services (CVs, description of similar assignments, and experience in similar conditions).
Consultant (individual consultant) will be selected in accordance with the World Bank’s Guidelines: Selection and Employment of Consultants by World Bank Borrowers, May 2004.
Deadline for submission of Expressions of Interest is September 22, 2008 (Local Ulaanbaatar time). Expressions of Interest must be delivered to the address below:


Governance Assistance Project (GAP)
Attn: Mrs. G. Oyungerel – GAP Project Manager
Room # 304, Peace Building 8 / 5, Sukhbaatar Street, 4th khoroo
Chingeltei district, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Tel: (976-51) 265-782
Fax: (976-11) 7011 0582
e-mail: procurement@gap.mn

Submissions can be sent via certified mail, via fax or by email. Those who choose delivery by email should ensure that a confirmed delivery receipt of their mail is received. The PCU bears no responsibility in non delivery submissions due to internet network problems or glitches
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